Let me tell you what a no fly zone is not.
A no-fly zone (NFZ) is not that part of your grandmother’s back porch in Podunk Summerville, Oklahoma with a dry rotting sign that says “no flies allowed” along with six bug zappers and sticky tape dangling from the ceiling.
You hear that sound? The sharp “zzzt,” that signals death? As much as you want it to be the sound of a C-RAM taking out missiles or an A10 taking out choppers and otherwise providing close air support, it is also not a Russian fighter jet getting zapped. Russian pilots aren’t dazed and ignoring the plea’s of their comrades yelling into their mics “don’t go into the light!”
A no-fly zone is not like that scene in Back to the Future II where Marty and Doc are navigating their way through the clouds, where Russians see magical hovering lights saying “don’t enter here, Ukrainian airspace ahead” with tacky 80’s neon lights that are seizure risks leading their way back to Russian airspace instead.
A no-fly zone is not a seating area in a dispensary or part of the house at your best friend’s high school party to separate people who smoke too much pot from those that don’t partake and prefer to listen to poetry.
A no-fly zone is a designated area on a map that the bad guy is told they cannot enter without being fired upon on a map. No fly zones does don’t work like sage, you don’t just smoke a barrier into place and a wave a little bit and then all of a sudden the bad guys just can’t enter.
A no-fly zone is not the area of zipper-less jeans (do these even exist?), or the part of the cafeteria where only the “uncool” and “square” kids hangout.
In fact, no-fly zone must be defended. They have to have a protocol for enforcement against breaches of that airspace. These areas are designated regions in which specific aircraft are not allowed to enter unless they wish to suffer measurable (or immeasurable) consequences. Like injury, and death. The side effects are not generally listed, but well understood by everyone involved. Posted signs along the streets or in remote plateaus will not keep the Russians out, nor will hand gestures, postcards, moonshots (as in literally showing one’s ass), or any other gesture of ill will (except death, in most circumstances).
In context of Ukraine, it matters who provides that enforcement. It is one thing for Ukrainians to contest their airspace and achieve functional superiority and security over specific geographical areas or cities. It is another thing entirely for members of the EU, and especially for members of NATO, to provide that protection.
Why does it matter who defends the airspace? First of all, politics. Second of all, if NATO provides that support, Russia will perceive that as a real or perceived (but perception will lead to reality) escalation. This will bear immediate fruit the moment a member of NATO’s defense forces strike down Russian aircraft. This also means that the United States cannot (indeed, must not) provide a no-fly-zone. This brings us full circle to politics.
NATO, or the United States, enforcing a no-fly zone means that these forces will come into direct military conflict with Russian forces, which creates the very likely event for future escalations. It’s easy to say nuclear war, or world war three, but there are other escalations that will well before that. We ought to avoid that. The world may well depend on it.
Moreover, a no-fly zone will not help protect against shelling (long range artillery) or ground forces. But the moment a ground unit attacks a NATO/US member trying to defend protected airspace is another potential moment in which things escalate between Europe, the United States, and Russia.
TL;DR: Russians shooting at Ukrainians equals war. Russians shooting at NATO forces (or US forces absent NATO involvement) equals potential escalations, and more war. We should do everything within our power to avoid that.
What we should do instead, is continue to provide Ukraine with as much resources and firepower as possible to help them take out tanks, stay protected, stay fed, and help them succeed in the defense of their airspace in conjunction with ensuring the safety and wellbeing of refugees and Ukrainian citizens.
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